if the missed opportunity of reform

At present, the risk in a significant increase in the global economy, but on the whole a second recession is unlikely. In 2012, 2013, the global economy will face greater risks. Main problems in Europe 2012, 2013, the main issues are in the United States. 2012 European economic growth could be negative, this is a global economic situationGreater challenges. United States economic growth in 2012 is expected to be around 2%, but in 2013 may drop to zero or even negative growth.　　We need to pay close attention, even if the world does not appear a second recession, we still need to prepare for a crisis. United States economic recovery with setbacks main capital stocks (eleven-twenty fifths) ran away some unit cut meat certainly regret burstSoaring gospel is not likely in a move investors: to entangle the stock saved!　　United States economy could maintain slow growth in the coming years, did not rule out 2013 into a recession. The global financial crisis caused by subprime mortgage crisis. Figure 1 shows the financial position of the major countries in the world, countries many of the problems, such as Greece, and Italy, and Portugal and the United StatesCountry.　　Almost all developed countries have debt crisis could break out, and easier to break out of the debt crisis in the public debt and fiscal deficit accounted for countries with higher proportion of GDP. United States economic recovery with setbacks is due to the nature of the crisis led to the balance sheet of the root causes of recessions, out of the process of the financial crisis is the process of gradually repair their balance sheets. ARelief can often be classified as Government, financial, other residents and enterprises in four departments. "Nature's balance sheet recessions" refers to the balance sheets of all major sectors of the economy suffered a serious injury, so after the recession ends, each Department scrambling to repair their balance sheets and reduce leverage, unwilling to continue debt. Departments, including the business no longer is to maximize profit forObjectives, but rather to lower debt levels for critical tasks.　　Characterized by inadequate aggregate demand, traditional monetary policy effects is limited. United States to achieve economic recovery, enterprise that is relatively healthy balance sheet to support residents, Governments, financial institutions, three patches of the balance sheet, which will be a tortuous and protracted process. United States economy is unlikely to 201And 2 will be able to get better. United States economy faces a long deleveraging process, aggregate demand subdued. United States Government's high deficit, debt, restricting flexibility for fiscal policy, is not conducive to supporting economic development. Currently lack of significant new economic growth points. Therefore, in the first quarter of 2011 economic growth began to emerge marked slowdown, wasMacroeconomic factors are reflected in the inevitable result of economic growth. At present, the United States residents gradually increasing deposits, banks were also becoming in the process of deleveraging, debt ratio decreased significantly, while the United States Government's balance sheet has expanded substantially. The so-called stimulus, which is the degree of impaired balance sheet through an increase in Government, to fix three additional sector assetsBalance sheet. United States will still be long under pressure to reduce total debt.　　We did an initial calculations, if the repair to healthier levels until 2018, which performed a one-term President under the ruling of the time to complete. Enterprise sector, United States business investment remains a key factor in driving economic recovery. But as companies hold large amounts of cash in the hands, andAnd expectations of future growth prospects uncertain, therefore enterprises do not have plans to further increase investment, the United States economic growth process of a certain degree of inhibition. If confidence is to increase investment, improving job market. Even if the United States experienced a century of crises, but United States enterprises profit is unexpectedly well, this has not happened before. We forecast2011 p 500 earnings for 15% positive growth, month was 2012, China 2011, all a-share earnings growth may be 15% in 2012, only around 10%. The financial sector, has been effectively restored after the financial crisis on the balance sheet, risk-resistant ability. But because of the lack of corporate loan demand, andPeople, and Enterprise deposits increasing United States commercial bank credit and savings gap increased, and is not conducive to sustained economic recovery.　　In addition, from the macro level, United States M2 increase the larger, but increasing the money supply does not cause inflation, because the corporate investment willingness is not strong, money multiplier fell, leading to failure of monetary transmission mechanism. The Government sector, United States Government debtLevels and the budget deficit will remain high, bonds will be about $ 6 trillion in the next 10 years.　　The Obama administration's plan to cut the deficit in the next 10 years the total amount of approximately US $ 2.5 trillion, which could in the next 2 years on pulling down the GDP exceeds 2%. In short, United States economy could maintain slow growth in the coming years, did not rule out 2013Recession possible.　　European debt crisis prolonged if Italy, and France's problem from getting worse, may be banking system crisis. Outbreak of the debt crisis in Europe stems from the differences between the countries is too large, and lack of effective policy coordination mechanisms among the countries. Euro-zone labor costs of serious Division, did not conform to the theory of optimum currency areasPieces. Unemployment of the Member States are very different, may take a decade to reach a new equilibrium. These differences significant symbiosis between countries within the eurozone, on the importance of effective coordination mechanisms in policy swtor power leveling, including fiscal transfers, but which is not be achieved under the present situation in Europe. When setting up the European Union at that time, Germany worried about excessive reliance on other countries than Germany, so deliberatelyMade the EU into a small government.　　EU spending at their disposal only 1% per cent of EU GDP, and these 1% of GDP but also poverty alleviation in Africa, for missions, large translation teams, and so on, so there are not enough funds for the financial transfer payment. The European Central Bank is not a conventional Bank, for this we need to deeply understand. When the design of the European Central BankWait, try copying the Germany Central Bank model, the target is a stable currency and stable inflation. Now Germany largest economies, economic growth is the best, face the problem of inflation, and for the other countries concerned were facing problems of deflation. If you want to take care of Germany the interests, the European Central Bank will raise interest rates, but taking care of other countries should cut interest rates. Therefore, mechanisms for coordinating policies in the euro zoneProblem is very difficult to resolve. European Bank to "European pig five" has a huge exposure, tightening of funds, which recently received some attention.　　If Italy, and France's problem from getting worse, risk is further increased, may be banking system crisis. If Germany pays now address the euro issue, there are three main disadvantages. First, Germany cutToo much money. Second, lost the chance to reform, such as Italy after World War II has been relying on devaluations, inflation came, no real reforms, Portugal, and Spain, too, the Greece problem is more serious. So much of the crisis do not reform, if the missed opportunity of reform, the problem may be bigger. Third, if Germany now solved this problem,Appreciation of the euro against the dollar would significantly, this would damage Germany interests can also damage the euro-zone interests. If the eurozone collapse, there are three main disadvantages. First, Germany as the heart of the eurozone countries, indifference, the political cost is very large. Secondly, Germany withdrew from the eurozone, Mark's hands, in the short term may be 30% per cent against the dollar, making Germany bearCan't.　　Third, other EU countries are Germany irresponsible practices of hostility, all countries are implementing protectionist the old republic power leveling, Germany's exports will be a great shock. Therefore, euro collapse or rely solely on Germany tide is unlikely to be a eurozone problem solving Germany's best option. What would be the end result? I think it will pump the bellows-like, when asked about theQuestions go to the cliff pulling back, and the problems of countries themselves.　　Therefore, the European debt crisis will become a persistent problem.　　2012: China preparing for crisis even in the absence of a second recession, China's environment is challenging next year. The future, United States, Europe's two largest developed economies will be extremely loose monetary policy, suchExternal environment will impact how emerging markets and China's economy, this is a very worthy of our attention. In 2012 there will be some emerging market countries twin deficits. 2011 currency has problems in some emerging market countries, such as India and Korea national currency exchange rate depreciation cent in September 2011. If emerging markets shuffle, 2012 financial market risk higher than in 2011. 2011 events three exceeded expectations in financial markets. Overall, 2011 overseas hedge funds are not easy to make money, except those that sang the air State funds and other emerging markets. Why not make money? First, the oil market in 2011, there is a big adjustment, United States through regulatory measuresEffects of compression of the oil market speculation space. Second, the gold market in 2011, squeezed out the water. Third, the currency market speculation the high Swiss franc and Yen also unsustainable. Of course, overseas also does anyone really believe that China's economy is a big problem.　　This shows that the market is still not optimistic for 2012. Overall, I think the global economy 2012May not be a second recession. Compared to United States, Europe will face greater risks. Because of financial and political election-related reasons, United States 2013 will become more serious. Now markets to China's attention more and more, including some negative attention.　　Therefore, even in the absence of a second recession, China's environment is challenging in the next two years. We need to startPreparing for the crisis.