2012年1月1日 星期日

GDP growth will last down situation

129667864393896642_2062012 macroeconomics: growth trends fell, restructuring-led development in 2012, GDP growth will last down situation, expected annual GDP growth at around 8.5%. Retracements speed will be more obvious in the first half, stabilised in the second half.  Nominal GDP growth around 14%. Expected growth in M2 the target to 13-14% per year7.5 per cent of new lending, Community financing amounted to 13.8 trillion, growth about 10% 11 tight liquidity situation of a certain degree of ease. GDP troika slower fixed asset investment growth: 18-20%.  Main sources of growth in investment demand is driven by market forces. Consumption growth: increased consumer on behalf of the whole societySpeed 16-17%.  The short term the old republic power leveling, in the context of falling inflation expectations and slowing economic growth, consumption growth will be slower, but much smaller than the volatility of its investment, remains a factor of stability for economic growth; and long term swtor power leveling, in rising wages and slower cases of productive investment, consumption and consumption-related sectors will continue to steadily expand. Export growth: 12-15%.  Under the influence of the European debt crisis, global economic growth forecast downward, possibility of recession in Europe is increasing, export growth continued downward adjustments in China; trade surplus levels could still billions of dollars per cent decline in growth, contribution to GDP is negative. Inflation: CPI inflation for the year 3.5-4% the effects of carryover effect, the first half of cPI will remain in the 4.5-5% between the high location, might drop to between 3-4% in the second half.    Quarter of 12 commodities price adjustment expected increase, PPI boost power weakened global economy slowdown dynamic attenuation of the makes upward price, therefore, 2012 inflation and policy impact on the economy weakened. (Specific content please see annex)

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