2012年1月1日 星期日

euro-dollar gradually reverted to 1.3381. K-line stretched to months

129667840545927892_347Global economy are competition who is the ugliest, resulting in huge countries exchange rate turbulence. When there is no direction in the market, is the best time of RMB exchange rate to increase two-way volatility. Appreciation of the Renminbi must not be under pressure, it is in China for manufacturing bring ruin upon oneself, China also cannot let the Renminbi exchange rate still intact. Therefore, expanding the fluctuation interval to be the best approach. From EUR and USD exchange ratePrice, currently on the market has not knows what currencies may not be unilaterally rising or falling trend. On November 23, 1.3341 fell to EUR/USD closed a six-week low, because Germany poor bond sales, Germany staged sell from buy farce planned EUR 6 billion 10-year bond auction, eventually sold only 3.644 billion euro, Germany's Central Bank was forced to buy the remaining near 40% bond-investor panic mentality against the euro further expanded. Euro not homeopathy fall, Beijing time on November 24 at 7 o'clock, euro-dollar gradually reverted to 1.3381. K-line stretched to months, has gone through three rounds of the euro can be seen very significant fluctuations from 2008 to the end of the yearFall and the collapse of the November 2009 to May 2010, April 2011 fall so far. Starting early last year, European debt crisis intensified in the second half of this year. The strange thing is, the euro fell and not out of unilateral, but after a wheel fell, followed by a massive increase star wars the old republic power leveling, and shock, while the maximum distance of 1.6 have IAMBut the rally still can reach the height of 1.5. It shows that investors generally panic on the global economy. Investor attention to the European debt crisis, the euro, investors eye occasionally glance at United States debt disputes, deficit of us $ party struggles give investors dare not go chasing rising dollar. In volatile markets, investors apart from preserving the euro or European debt short, in relation toWas let go long on the yen and Swiss francs, this is really a coward--not the worst, only more rotten. However, unwilling to be fish of Japan and Switzerland's Central Bank, announced suddenly intervened in currency, betting encounter gunnin ' Phoenix Suns explosive cartridge. Expanded two-way volatility of Renminbi exchange rate the best reason is that the market formation stability of the renminbi is not expected. This year, against theDollar parity rate the largest increase has more than 4.6%; since the third quarter, exchange-rate flexibility is significantly increased. Calculated according to the Bank for international settlements, the third quarter of 2011, nominal effective exchange rate appreciation of the Yuan 1.58%, 4.24% real effective exchange rate appreciation. After the national day holiday this year has been more than 6 weeks time, the Yuan central parity against the dollar of the weekTrojan were mixed-213, 134, 338 basis points respectively, 125-152 and-231, and unilateral move up 6 July this year compared to the situation, prospect of RMB's appreciation has been signs of weakening. Market for Yuan love/hate, see Europe, the United States, such as China and India forced appreciation, betting on Yuan; fear that the real economySoft, and shorting the currency. There is no doubt that, at $ 3.2 trillion in foreign reserves in the hands of China, also increases the pressure of RMB appreciation in the world. But this is political pressure rather than market pressures. Since the second quarter, offshore renminbi spot to go down and always lower than the domestic market, foreign investors doesn't think much of the description of RMB. Outflow of funds gradually within cityOctober's new financial institutions Exchange fell for the first time in nearly 4 years, in the case of foreign direct investment and foreign trade surplus remains, notes significant increase in the speed and scale of capital outflow in China, short of RMB and China's economic strength is growing. The other hand, due to the weakening of the domestic economic situation, October purchasing managers ' index below 50 per centShowing economic contraction expected strong. Under the current situation, as long as China doesn't launch massive stimulus, RMB exchange rate cannot be increased substantially, the maximum may be related to the euro, relative to from dollar fluctuations. Forced in front of the problem is that due to the European debt crisis in Europe in the world to withdraw funds, funds of about $ 1.6 trillion in Asia may withdraw, increasedAdd Asia's deleveraging in the financial sector risks. At this point, in Asia, including China financial pressure will only increase, not diminish. Therefore, relax bi-directional wave, will never cause a drastic appreciation of the single. Neighbouring India rupees has been pushed to a record low, exchange rate pressures following short-term downside was its future possibilities. RMB exchange rate in the market good active spreadBig band the old republic power leveling, is a sign of confident self. On November 19, Premier Wen Jiabao said China is paying close attention to recent changes in the RMB exchange rate, it would allow two-way volatility of exchange rate flexibility. Now US dollar spot rate difference between the selling price and the purchase price shall not exceed the trading price of 1%, while the interbank foreign exchange market the dollar against the Yuan trading in Bank of AmericaTransaction price 0.5% up and down within the range of a floating, expanding 1 time or even twice times, appreciation of the Renminbi will not unilaterally and then crash. Premise is that the Government did not pursue GDP to stimulate the economy, does not intend to expand in foreign exchange reserves, not to act as a Savior of the world economy. (Daily news)

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